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By Dustin Hockensmith
Fantasy Sports 101 Baseball

The last of our position previews, we now turn our attention to outfielders, a position wide open for your own interpretation. While you choose one or two from a short list of catchers and infielders, you have to narrow a list of about 100 down to three or five starting spots. There seems to be a consensus for the top three outfielders chosen - Matt Holliday, Alfonso Soriano and Carl Crawford - but eye of the beholder takes over from there.

Magglio Ordonez throws a wrench into plans because few are confident he can come close to his career-best 2007 numbers. Traditional top-flight outfielders like Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield slip to their lowest draft positions in years, while do-it-all youngsters like B.J. Upton, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios and Nick Markakis are coming of age and warranting consideration in the early rounds.

Consider the rankings below, both for the order in which the players are listed and the explanations for why they are there. Order and analysis are based on a standard, 10-team league with 5x5 rotisserie scoring.

1. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is one of the few hitters in baseball with the all-around abilities, lineup protection and ballpark to rival the explosive production of Alex Rodriguez. He has Triple Crown type potential (.340 avg., 36 HRs, 137 RBI in '07) and gives you a big boost in the batting average department.

2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
A sore quad prevented Soriano from meeting expectations on the basepaths, but he still found a way to hit 33 home runs and steal 19 bases in 135 games in his Cubs debut. He's still working to fully recover from the injury, so you must monitor his progress to determine expectations in steals. The guess is that he's limited and totals about 35-40 homers and 25 steals.

3. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
This is year No. 5 that people are expecting a spike in Crawford's power numbers. Maybe it happens, maybe not, but he still warrants a second-round draft selection on his steals and run production numbers alone. With a better supporting cast in Tampa, this could be a year for him to hit 20 homers, score 100 runs, drive in 90, and steal 50-60 bases.

4. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
Beltran has yet to put together a premium fantasy season since signing with the Mets in 2005. Part of the reason is that Shea Stadium does him no favors, and another part is that he hasn't been fully healthy to be active on the basepaths. But what you've still gotten from him are 30+ home runs, 110+ RBI and the potential to push 40 steals in any given season.

5. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
Sizemore fell short of lofty expectations in 2007 - people were assuming a 30/30 season from him - but there's still plenty of reason to be excited about 2008. His average, runs and home runs totals all dropped from the previous year, while we got our wish for him to be more active on the basepaths. He stole 11 more bases (33 to 22) and had 15 more attempts (43 to 28) in 2007.

6. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
If Mariners manager Bob Melvin gets his wish, Ichiro will hit .400 and steal 80 bases this season. Melvin must play fantasy baseball because all of us have been wishing for those mega numbers for years. Ichiro actually has the talent to do just that and brings a big-time strength to fantasy with a gaudy batting average over tons of at-bats.

7. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
Lee doesn't get enough respect as a fantasy player. He has given you no reason to expect anything less than 30 home runs and 110 RBI, which is something you can't say about the players below him on this list. He may not have the name clout, but rest assured, he has the same, if not better, fantasy game.

8. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels
Last year seemed like the first of Guerrero's fully evolved fantasy game. His stolen base total dropped all the way to 2, while his home runs fell to 27 and his doubles rose to a career-high 45. He's either seeing fewer mistake pitches or delivering less punishment when he does. He's great for the high average and big RBI production, but is heading in the wrong direction with the power and speed.

9. Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers
Ordonez represents one of the major predicaments when approaching your fantasy draft. He can't possibly match the massive .363-28-139-117 numbers from a career 2007 season. My argument is that he most certainly will not, especially with that lofty average, but there is power potential we have yet to see and the Tigers' lineup will be even better in 2008. He has no target on his back, and plenty of opportunities to produce.

10. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
All of Berkman's vitals went down last season - extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts, average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage - but average aside, his fantasy totals remained on-par with his typical season. He's not as good as the 45 homers and 136 RBI he had in 2006 and won't get much worse than the 34 and 102 in 2007.

11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
For comfortability reasons, Upton was a much better hitter as a second baseman than a center fielder (.345 to .278) last season. But he will have gone through half a season and a full spring training in center, and he should be at ease and more concentrated on his offensive duties. He has the look of a poor man's Soriano, with the potential to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases.

12. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox
Dollars motivate Manny Ramirez, and there are a bunch of them on the line this season. After production declined for a second straight season - he missed a combined 61 games over that span - Ramirez has to be the Manny of old for Boston to pick up the remaining two years on his contract. Motivated Manny is a dangerous one, and he's got $40 million worth of it entering this season.

13. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
Granderson is one of the best young players in baseball, and he sits atop the game's most explosive lineup. For that, he has a ton of value. But, neither his home runs nor stolen bases are likely to approach 30, and the Tigers may have a lot of reason to limit their risks on the basepaths.

14. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
Some season, people are going to be happy they passed on Byrnes in drafts. In fact, if he were as physically gifted as Grady Sizemore in real life, he would be held in the same regard on the fantasy side. This looks to be the third straight season that Byrnes proves himself an excellent value. He was one of six players in baseball to steal at least 30 bases (he stole 50) and hit at least 20 homers, and only one of the other five (Sizemore) was an outfielder.

15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
Dunn is a premium power hitter in fantasy baseball - he has 40+ homers in four straight seasons - and if he can hit .264 again, he's being tremendously undervalued. My belief is that he'll do just that while adding his fifth straight 40-homer season and add a handful of stolen bases.

16. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels
Hunter is leaving a tough hitter's park and isn't going to be in any sort of platoon, yet he's a forgotten man in fantasy outfields. You see him on highlight reels throwing his body around on the field, but he averaged 154 games played, 29.5 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 103 RBI over his last two seasons in Minnesota. He doesn't get his due for being average or above in every category of a 5x5 league.

17. Alex Rios, Toronto Blue Jays
Rios is a very solid player and still has a little upside left to be realized. He had his best year in 2007, playing in 161 games and hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 85 RBI, 114 runs scored and 17 stolen bases for Toronto. It's hard to envision much more than the 24 homers and 17 steals, but he is an established five-category contributor in the prime of his career.

18. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
Had Figgins been healthy for the entire 2007 season, his steals total would have looked more like 60 than the 41 he had in 115 games. The ultra-aggressive Angels don't play station-to-station baseball, opting to force the action, especially with their best base runner in Figgins. And because many of his teammates are in motion during his at-bats, Figgins is not a liability in run production.

19. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
Markakis is going to have to go out and do the same thing this season as he did in 2007: And that is, go get his numbers with very little help in the lineup. He's got the chops to do it and is aided by a nice hitter's park at Camden Yards, so quality production again can be expected across the board. Think .300-25-100-100-20, which he nearly did in 161 games last season.

20. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers
Sheffield's still got a bum wing (shoulder), but appears to be coming around in time for spring training. He was dynamic when healthy last year, so that's the only question you should have about him. If you feel like he can play 150 games as a designated hitter, then he's worthy of a pick in the ninth or 10th rounds. If you don't, he will, in all likelihood, hang around longer than that.

21. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees
How you feel about Abreu's age will determine how high he should be slotted on your draft list. The short right field porch at Yankee Stadium will work in his favor and keep that home run total around 15, and he's been over both 20 steals and 100 RBI in six of the past seven seasons. It's safer to assume age doesn't devastate those trends, especially when surrounded by a half dozen perennial All-Stars.

22. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
Hart took the fantasy world by storm last season when he went crazy from the Brewers' leadoff position. Rickie Weeks looks to have gotten healthy and reclaimed that role, but there's still room to match his 2007 season totals (24 homers, 23 stolen bases). His role will be a little different with a move down the lineup, that could keep his steals total in check.

23. Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
A little projection is involved with this pick, which drives him down this list when there seems to be a cap on his upside. The cap is in the form of power and speed, where he could fall short of expectation and finish with something like 20 homers and 10 steals. This is my "Ryan Zimmerman" nominee as a talented freshman who could suffer a mini sophomore slump.

24. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
Young's season was probably the most bizarre, pleasant surprise in fantasy baseball last year. Dynamic production in two premium categories - 32 homers and 27 stolen bases - but sub-standard in run production and a paltry .237 average. Even if you believe that he can improve upon that average - and I'm on the fence about that - it takes some fortitude to actually walk the walk on draft day.

25. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
Matsui is an understated part of a high profile Yankees team and flies under the radar on fantasy draft day. He's a reliable bet to drive in 100 runs and is a contributor in four of the five roto categories (batting average, home runs and runs being the others). Another 100-RBI guy should always be a welcome addition to your five-man outfield.

26. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Francoeur is a hitter mature beyond his years, which is what it takes to collect 100 RBI in each of your first two full seasons. He's a better power hitter than he showed last year and a better contact hitter than he showed in 2006. What seems likely to play out is splitting the difference between the two, which would mean a .280 average, 25 home runs and another 100+ RBI.

27. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays
Coming off a career-worst season shakes your confidence enough, but Wells is coming off surgery to remove a cyst and repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. He feels good in the spring, but that doesn't mean I feel good about drafting him. He's had down years before and has bounced back on a couple of occasions, but I don't like the the fact that his best season as a pro came as he negotiated a huge contract extension in 2006.

28. Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins
The Twins, looking to revamp their offense in the absence of Torii Hunter, did well to land Young in a trade with Tampa Bay. Young was clutch for the Rays and drove in 93 runs, while batting .288 with 13 home runs. It's safe to expect a turn for the better with both his power and speed (10 SBs), and he has the ability to hit .300-20-100-80-20.

29. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
Thousands of fantasy owners will end up resenting Pierre; he's an easy target. He'll still kill them with another zero home runs, probably finish well short of 500 at-bats, and cost either Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp a full-time job under new manager Joe Torre. People are making certain they don't overvalue him, so if you want to make up some quick ground in steals, he can be had for bargain bin prices.

30. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bay didn't have a clue at the dish last season and fell from fantasy grace with a .247 average and 21 home runs. As bad as those hurt and as little as the following directly matters to fantasy, I'm more stunned by the sudden cut in his walks total (102 down to 59). He pressed at the plate and was buried by pitchers when they got ahead in counts. My preference is to pass on Bay, barring a great value, and select hitters I know will have an idea at the plate.

31. Andruw Jones, Los Angeles Dodgers
There's nothing harder to than draft a .222 batting average, so Jones is tumbling down draft charts everywhere. The traditional thought of contract year motivation did not apply to the 30-year old slugger, it was actually on the contrary. He pressed and swung off his heels, which he had previously been known to do for only stretches of a season. But he's not done yet, and lower expectations will work in his favor. 

32. Nick Swisher, Chicago White Sox
The boy has cried wolf a couple of times already for Swisher, but starting fresh with the White Sox appears to be a genuine time to believe the hype. U.S. Cellular Field is a launching pad, and he should be a great fit in the lineup as well as the clubhouse. Only a debacle type season will prevent him from reaching the 30-home run mark.

33. Brad Hawpe, Colorado Rockies
If you believe Hawpe has staying power in fantasy, then you seem to be one of the few. His season, which shaped up just like teammate Garrett Atkins', was representative of a good, professional Major League hitter. He became a much more capable run producer and just mashed at Coors Field to finish with 29 homers and 116 RBI. The air isn't getting any thicker out there, and Hawpe is far too consistent to not take advantage of it.

34. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
Victorino is the best sleeper speed prospect in fantasy this season because he can hold his own with 10-15 home runs. Because he's a relative unknown and not trusted to be healthy, Victorino has slipped in drafts to good value position. He should be considered right along with Juan Pierre, if you're looking for speed after the 10th round.

35. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox
Dye had a down year in 2007 and turned 34 in the first month of 2008. But, because he's a legitimate source of 30-home run power late in drafts, he's still a valuable commodity for those who build with veterans first. Don't get twinkles in your eyes about the 44 homers and 120 RBI he had in 2006, but 30 and 90 are possibilities.

36. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
Upton is YOUNG - he won't turn 21 until August - but he's young in that "Arrive Quickly and Stay There" kind of way, much the same as prodigies Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones and Alex Rodriguez were. If you want a physical comparison, think Mike Cameron with a better swing and more talent. He's a future .300-30-100-100-30 type hitter and is worth a pick with hopes that the future is now.

37. Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago Cubs
News that Lou Pinella wants to experiment with hitting Fukudome third in the Cubs' lineup is good for his fantasy game. All reports are that he won't wow you with his pop, but could be a nice contributor in every category. He's can draw walks and hit doubles, so he'll be in good positions to score runs. And he'd bat ahead of Derrek Lee and behind Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Theriot, so there will be RBI opportunities and pitches to drive.

38. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kemp is in slightly better position to grab a majority of playing time in right field, but Andre Ethier still poses a serious threat. With the signing of Andruw Jones and the move of Juan Pierre to left field, Kemp may once again be the first to lose at-bats to Ethier. If he can log 450 at-bats, he's a good bet to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases.

39. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
Ellsbury technically enters camp without a starting job, but he's in a good situation to earn one quickly. Should right fielder J.D. Drew go down with an injury - an annual occasion - or Coco Crisp be slow out of the gates, Ellsbury will jump in and never look back. Assess the probability of those scenarios as you wish, but I like the chances. With a job, Ellsbury has 15-20 home run power and the potential to steal 30 bases.

40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners
Ibanez will never be at the top of my wish list entering a season, but a down year has rendered him an afterthought in 2008. He's a proven RBI guy who has shown glimpses of 30-home run power in recent seasons, but last season's struggles have made him an easy target late in drafts. Also take a look at how he finished in 2007: He had six home runs in his first 372 at-bats and 15 in his final 201.