April 4, 2008 - Now is a tricky time of year in fantasy baseball. We, as owners, are tormented by hot and cold players alike, and we struggle to keep our eyes on the big picture. Sleepers and bust predictions are taking shape, but be sure and keep things in proper perspective. Let us help you with our list of surprises and disappointments. And for good measure, we'll give you some bullpen notes to ponder.

Surprises

OF Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates - Though Nady did much of his damage in the Pirates' season-opening win at Atlanta (4-for-7, 2 HRs, 4 RBI), he has still driven in at least one run in each of his three games to lead Major League Baseball with seven RBI. Nady had a very good first half last season (.291-14-50) and finished with a respectable .278-20-72 line. Proceed with caution, but don't be afraid to ride the hot streak and hope he can approach 30 homers for the first time in his career.

SS Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves - Manager Bobby Cox and virtually every player on the Braves' roster were ranting and raving about Escobar in the spring, so the fact that he's batting .375 with a home run and six RBI shouldn't be a surprise. Comparisons are legitimate between Escobar and the player he replaced, Edgar Renteria (traded to Detroit), which would mean a .300 average and solid contributions in power and speed. He's young, 25, but is dynamic and in good position to be productive batting second in Atlanta's lineup.

OF Carlos Gomez, Minnesota Twins - Again, Gomez is only a surprise because success has been so immediate. He can handle the bat, hit for power and steal bases, and when he won the center field job at the end of spring training, Gomez was also penciled in as the Twins' leadoff hitter. He has thrived in the early going and captured the attention of fantasy owners with his speed potential (2 SBs). In ESPN leagues, no position player is being added to more rosters, but Gomez can still be found on most waiver wires.

SS Jeff Keppinger, Cincinnati Reds - Keppinger is making the most of his time as Cincinnati's starting shortstop, hitting .500 (5-for-10) with a home run and stolen base in three games. He obviously won't continue at his current pace, but it is an indicator of what he can do: hit for a high average and deliver reasonable numbers in runs, homers and steals. Starter Alex Gonzalez (knee) is still a couple weeks away from returning, by which point Keppinger could have made a compelling case to stay in the lineup.

SP Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds - Cueto is a fantasy sensation after allowing just one hit and striking out 10 in seven innings in his major league debut on Thursday. As good as his stuff was - he throws a fastball, slider, change-up combination - his poise and maturity were even more impressive. All of the spring hype looks to be well deserved -- so is an immediate add in all fantasy leagues.

Disappointments

OF Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks - The outlook isn't good for a dramatic improvement over his .238 average from last season. And to make matters worse, if his poor play continues, there are several possible demotions in his future. Young has two hits and seven strikeouts in his first 10 at-bats, which could mean first being removed from the leadoff role, then a demotion from the starting lineup. The latter is a stretch, but the former is distinctly possible as Arizona looks to address a slumping offense.

OFs Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers - Ethier won the starting left field job out of camp, and Pierre was sent to the bench. Not that we expected that to be a final solution, but new manager Joe Torre has done little to solve a crowded outfield problem by being too willing to plug the veteran Pierre in for Kemp or Ethier. Barring injury, Torre will continue to play matchups and get all three corner outfielders playing time, which puts a serious damper on the value of breakout candidates Ethier and Kemp.

RP J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners - Add another name to the growing list of early pitching casualties. No timetable has been established for Putz's return from a ribcage injury, which makes his immediate future cloudy, to say the least. In the meantime, Mark Lowe will head a closer committee and get most of the save opportunities. Check out the other big name pitchers currently on the DL: Putz, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, B.J. Ryan, Josh Beckett, Brad Lidge, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo, Kelvim Escobar and Chris Carpenter. It's been a rough year already for veteran pitchers.

1B Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins - Yeah, it's early, but Morneau has yet to record a hit in the Twins' first three games (0-for-12). Not overly alarming on its own, but this comes after he .200 in the spring and .222 in his last 56 games last season. Morneau is a good bet to rebound in a big way, but he's also likely to frustrate fantasy owners with hot and cold streaks along the way.

SP Pedro Martinez, New York Mets - Martinez's claims that he felt great in the spring generated a lot of optimism for Mets fans and for fantasy owners, who suddenly had high expectations in 2008. One start into it and Pedro's hamstring pops and sends him to the DL for 4 to 6 weeks. He could still have some worth before this season's done, but the question is, is he worth the headache?

Bullpen Storylines

Royals' Success and Joakim Soria's Save Count - About the only thing holding Soria's value in check prior to this season was the questionable status of the club he pitches for. The Royals' season-opening sweep of the AL favorite Tigers has been evidence of a steady turnaround in Kansas City, one that has been keyed by the starting pitching trio of Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke. Leads should be much easier to come by than we gave credit for, which makes 30 saves a very reasonable expectation.

Risk Factors: Eric Gagne vs. Brandon Lyon - Face the facts, at least one of these two pitchers is losing his closing job in the very near future. And under the circumstances, Lyon has to be the favorite to do so. He never had a full vote of confidence from manager Bob Melvin, then struggled in the spring and got blasted in his second regular season appearance. Gagne's leash will be a little longer because a.) he's had prior success as a closer, and b.) the Brewers would really hate to be paying $10 million for a struggling setup man. If you're hedging for a future change, Tony Pena would be a quality pickup.

Mariners Closer Situation - Sans J.J. Putz, the Mariners are left with a couple of decent, not great, options to close out games. They really like the arm of 24-year old right-hander Mark Lowe, but could grow to value the experience of Miguel Batista, who saved 31 games for the Blue Jays in 2005. The names of Sean Green and Eric O'Flaherty will come up, but look for the heavy majority of a timeshare to be won by Lowe or Batista. Upside seekers should latch on to Lowe, who could be a dominator in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. As a closer in '05, Batista had a 4.10 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 74.2 innings.

Lidge's Return Delayed - The return of Phillies closer Brad Lidge may be a few days later than originally reported after struggling in a rehab appearace for High-A Clearwater on Thursday. He should shake the rust off by early next week, then join a Phils' bullpen that has struggled in his absence. A hot start would be a big benefit to his psyche in keeping the Philadelphia boo birds in their place.

Soriano's Cast of Setup Men - Atlanta Braves closer Rafael Soriano has performed capably in his first full season as a closer, but hasn't had any leads to protect yet, in part because of a sketchy cast of relievers in front of him. Complicating things further is the placement of Mike Hampton and John Smoltz on the 15-day DL. Soriano was getting pegged as a higher risk closer in preseason drafts, which turns out to be true, but only because of factors beyond his control.