By Steve Kwan
Fantasy Sports 101 Baseball

There’s always a time in a fantasy draft where one owners makes a pick that leaves you thinking to yourself, "what in the hell is that guy doing?" Maybe you’ve been that guy before, the one who keeps making unconventional picks while the other managers laugh at you.

In any case, fantasy sports are about having fun with your team, so don’t be discouraged with following your heart and picking the players you like. But sometimes, doing a little research will guide your heart in the right direction and propel your team to a fantasy championship. 

When it comes to draft busts, there aren’t always tell-tale signs that a player is about to fall off a fantasy cliff; many experts at major sports websites predicted that Bobby Abreu would be a big steal last season, but that never materialized. At the same time, many others correctly predicted that Jermaine Dye wasn’t worth a fourth round pick. Age plays a big factor in predicting how a player, particularly non-DH batters, pans out in the upcoming season. In the case of Dye, his biggest year came so late in his career that it was fairly easy to predict that he would have a hard time improving on those stats, let alone equal them. 

Younger prospects also present a problem. Sure, baseball websites may tag a player as a future All-Star, but unless you’re playing in a Keeper or Dynasty league, that player might not be a factor at all this upcoming season. Alex Gordon and Jeremy Hermida are good examples of this trend from previous years (although Hermida looks to be a viable pick in 2008). This year, players such as Justin Upton and Jay Bruce are the hot untested properties. Other prospects who have been semi-seasoned, such as Joba Chamberlain and Jacoby Ellsbury, provide safer, albeit pricier, options. 

The following is a list of 15 players that are being drafted too early in live drafts and will likely fall short of their draft stock.
 
C Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Top catchers often dupe owners into taking them way earlier than is necessary, not unlike the situation at second base. Martin has the potential to be a 20-90-20 guy, but he’s currently going as a third round pick. Hunter Pence, who has similar potential, can be had in the seventh round, as can Eric Byrnes, who is likely to top Martin's production.

C/1B Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
Most of the live drafts so far haven’t seen much lunacy picks at first base. With that being said, don’t pick Martinez for anything other than catcher. As a first baseman, he has a higher stock than players like Lance Berkman and Justin Morneau, which is a feat that he will most likely not be able to repeat this year. Players with potential to put up stats as good as Martinez’s include Carlos Guillen and Nick Swisher, so there's no reason to waste a high pick on Martinez as a first baseman unless he slips.

2B Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
Weeks is the reason that I’m a little wary of seeing Ryan Braun so high on draft boards this year. For the past three years people have taken Weeks with the view that he was primed to explode with Brandon Phillips-like numbers. So far, he hasn’t even reached Robinson Cano levels. There’s definitely still time for him to suddenly explode (just like Phillips), but I’d rather make a play on Yunel Escobar after Weeks is off the board.

2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
Cano’s lofty draft stock is a more a product of the sparse pickings at second base and less whether or not he is a fantasy stud. In a basic 5x5 league, however, he is definitely not worth the fourth or fifth round pick owners have been throwing his way. Guys like Howie Kendrick and Dustin Pedroia are a much better value at second base and could very well outperform Cano this year.

2B Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
What does Roberts do? Well, he can hit close to .300 and steal a lot of bases. But unlike Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez or even Carl Crawford, there doesn’t seem to be that much room for a power game to blossom for Roberts. So why is he being taken even before Cano, sometimes as high as the third round? You could draft Juan Pierre in the 10th round, and he would probably outperform Roberts.

3B Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
I feel like a fool putting Chipper on this list, but there is some reason for concern. At 36 years of age, is Chipper’s slight RBI jump last year here to stay? Perhaps more importantly, Ryan Zimmerman, who has significant help in Washington's lineup for the first time in his career, is currently going a full three rounds after Chipper. So why would you jump for Chipper when you can have a potential breakout star in Zimmerman at a lower price?

SS Felipe Lopez, Washington Nationals
Lopez’s days of being a fantasy impact player are probably over. He has never evolved into the complete player that many people thought he would be, and his batting average has slumped ever since he moved to Washington. So now he’s only good for stolen bases, which makes him a last-round throwaway pick from this point on.

OF Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
I personally feel that Granderson is a fantastic player, but in a 5x5 league his value drops significantly. He’s basically the Carmelo Anthony of baseball: far more valuable in real life than in the realm of fantasy. He’s a good jack-of-all trades player, but so are lower picks like Hunter Pence and possibly even Jacoby Ellsbury and Justin Upton. Don’t waste a third round pick on Granderson.

OF Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox
I’ve already commented on Dye’s fantasy stock from last year, and I am sorry to report that his stock, even after dropping quite a bit, is still too high for my liking. Dye’s going in the 10th round of most drafts so far, over guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeff Francoeur. Both Ellsbury and Francoeur could be stars in 2008, while Dye continues to get older and less motivated.

SP Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels
Escobar was long a draft sleeper pick over the years, but only last season did he shake off the injury bug and produce a newsworthy fantasy season. He’s on injury alert again this year, and seeing that he’s ranked in the middle rounds after picking up 18 wins, there are other starters like Brad Penny and Chien-Ming Wang that provide similar value with less risk. 

SP Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
I can’t shake the feeling that Carmona is going to be a one-hit wonder. His 19 wins from last year look lofty, but all of his other stats look decidedly average. So is he a legitimate number two starter? Or is he going to go the way of Jon Garland? He’s currently being taken over guys like Javier Vazquez, Brad Penny and Matt Cain, and that shouldn’t be the case.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox
I must first confess that I have a man-crush on Daisuke, but like Carmona before him, he’s not a better fantasy option than Penny or Cain unless he magically fixes his frequent control lapses. Japanese starters who have come before him have also not provided that much reason for optimism. I honestly wish that Daisuke would overtake Beckett and become an ace and pray that he wins 20 games and strikes out 250 batters. But that’s not happening, at least not this season.

SP James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays
Shields quietly had a breakout season last year, and that has affected his draft stock for this season. This isn’t so much a knock on Shields than it is a testament of how deep the starter pool is. Shields is currently going before guys like Cain, Tim Hudson, and Jeremy Bonderman; it’s hard to say how Bonderman will bounce back from a horrendous September, but Hudson and Cain will provide similar if not better stats than Shields. Hudson, in particular, can be had at a much lower price.

RP Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
Saito has been a very pleasant surprise for the Dodgers, but this year his draft stock is sky-high. He’s not getting any younger, and the Dodgers are obviously positioning Jonathan Broxton to be the closer of the future. Saito is currently being drafted ahead of closers like Billy Wagner and Mariano Rivera; let someone else take him that high while you wait a round and snag Mariano.

RP Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Cordero, whose breakout season last year in Milwaukee led to a big-money contract with the Reds, is currently being drafted right after Saito in many drafts. He’s both moving to one of the most brutal pitchers parks and being grossly overvalued on the draft boards so far. Pass on him.