|
Preseason Baseball Coverage: Draft Kit Central | New Faces in New Places | Top 250 Rankings Position Previews: Catchers | 1st Base | 2nd Base | 3rd Base | Shortstops | Outfielders | AL Closers | NL Closers By Dustin Hockensmith Fantasy Sports 101 Baseball Rankings are great in the days leading up to a fantasy draft, but the flurry of activities that takes place during it can render all your notes useless. Good luck shuffling through 15 documents when you're trying to watch the player pool and figure out how the draft is unfolding. Here's a helpful guide to prepare yourself for dilemmas that are sure to rack your brain in the heat of the moment. No Shedding Tiers for Shortstops and First Basemen The first and second rounds are prime territory for grabbing your starting first baseman and starting shortstop. The entire top tier of shortstops - Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins - have all gone in the first round of drafts, then it's all the way down to Troy Tulowitzki in the fifth or sixth round. On the first base side, I have David Ortiz as the No. 14 overall player, meaning that he, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder could all go within the first round and a half. It's not as steep a fall down, so you'll see some of these guys slip towards 20th overall. Jose Reyes vs. Hanley Ramirez Take a clear stance on this one, you can't be right or wrong. Reyes, you feel like he bottomed out in 2007 and should bounce back with fresh legs in '08. He also comes with a little more certainty than Ramirez, who lost a big bopper behind him in the lineup when Miguel Cabrera was sent to Detroit. Worst-case scenario if you take Reyes first: Last season happens again, Ramirez is more valuable, and you "only" get 80 stolen bases out of it. Handling Your Pitching Staff My philosophy is that pitching can always be replaced. You can even massage your league settings to the point where you don't technically need good pitchers to score tons of points on the pitching side. You're taught to shun primetime closers because they're not valuable enough to your team to draft early. Part of that is true, but they're not as valuable because there are good alternatives available later. If you bundle two or three top-flight closers (key is to get ones with massive strikeout rates), they function as one starter that compares favorably to Johan Santana, Jake Peavy or Erik Bedard. Take a Chance on Brian Roberts Personal belief on this one, but I really like Roberts' fantasy game. Namely, his ability to steal bases relative to his piers - he had 17 more stolen bases than the next closest second baseman. He got his numbers for a bad, discontent Orioles team last season, so he could do it again. Plus, there's a possibility he is dealt to a contender before or during the season. Imagine he lands in Chicago and hits leadoff for the Cubbies; his value would go through the roof. Veteran Outfielders Disrespected As you look for outfielders in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds of your draft, you will choose between two distinct groups of players. First, the semi-established budding stars Curtis Granderson (who in all likelihood goes before the fifth round), Nick Markakis and Alex Rios. And then, the grizzled veterans - Torii Hunter, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu and Gary Sheffield. Most are leaning towards the youngsters and leaving these known commodities hanging around for too long. How many times do I pass on Eric Byrnes? Byrnes could technically go in the group above because he is perennially underrated. There are few players who can do what he does - Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez and Grady Sizemore - which is hit 20 home runs and steal 50 bases. Those guys are obviously far more valuable than Byrnes for other reasons, but the gap between he and Sizemore is smaller than you think it is. His name will glare at you as someone you "should" take, but just don't want to. Just when you're ready to select him in the fifth or sixth round, someone before you finally pulls the trigger. Big Z Set for a Big Year Few players have lost as much of our confidence as Chicago Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. A dismal performance last year, which, I'll add, included 18 wins, and people forget that he has become a virtual lock for 16 wins and 200 strikeouts. I really believe that his struggles last year were a result of ongoing contract negotiations, too. Big Z doesn't exactly have the best composure in baseball, and something like this weighed on his mind while he pitched. Renteria a Good Chance to Get Piece of Tigers Offense The Detroit Tigers lineup is hands down the most exciting and dynamic in baseball, so why not try and grab a piece of it at some point during the draft? Guys like Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson are almost always bought at or above market value, which leaves Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield and Renteria as your best bets. The price on Renteria has been especially reasonable, as concerns are there about his ankle injury from last year and struggles last time he was in the American League. If he happens to play like an All-Star, his balanced numbers would become exceptional. Averages, Good and Bad, at Second Base Which of the talented, middle tier second baseman will bounce back from lower-than-expected batting averages last season. Ian Kinsler (.263), Dan Uggla (.245) and Rickie Weeks (.236) can all swing the bat, but struggled to make good, consistent contact. Kinsler and Weeks both dealt with injuries, and Weeks' sore wrist had been a chronic issue over the last couple of seasons. He got healthy in the second half and produced great results. On the flip side, Howie Kendrick and Placido Polanco could very well duel for the American League batting title, but neither is likely to make a huge splash in fantasy. Hitting .330 would be a nice boost, but it would come at a compromise to your power, steals and RBI. Late Closer Bargains You hit a certain point in your drafts where many owners are content having drafted one closer and start turning their attention elsewhere. Lack of competition will leave guys like Matt Capps, Manny Corpas, Rafael Soriano (who is being unfairly doubted), Huston Street and Francisco Cordero there for the taking in the 10th through 20th rounds. Cubs closer Bob Howry was a forgotten man early, but the favorite of manager Lou Pinella is starting be recognized more often. Yankees-Red Sox Rivalry Yields Intriguing Prospects New York Yankees pitchers Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes and Boston Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury are some of the most intriguing prospects in real or fantasy baseball. All four are the real deal and are in the bright lights of the game's most celebrated rivalry. You'll find opportunites to draft these guys without reaching; I recommend taking a flyer on at least one of the four. |